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‘IF OPPOSITION CONTINUES TO BE DIVIDED’

GMA to remain powerful beyond 2010 — analysts

By Gerry Baldo

07/27/2008

Contrary to many sectors’ belief, members of the academe yesterday said despite the sinking popularity of President Arroyo and the rising discontent over her leadership that has been wracked by several scandals involving alleged corruption, she will continue to hold on to power until she steps down in 2010 and will continue to wield influence beyond it.

During a forum on the “state of the presidency” held at the University Hotel of the University of the Philippines in Diliman, Quezon City, Prof. Bobby Tuazon of the University of the Philippines’ Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPeg) made such an assessment, saying Mrs. Arroyo has come this far even as her administration has gone through serious challenges due to a number of controversies it has been linked to because she has taken the “pertinent” steps to become resilient.

Tuazon said Mrs. Arroyo, who, according to surveys, is the most unpopular President of the country since dictator Ferdinand Marcos, has been surviving grave challenges to her administration by plugging all potential loopholes in the political system and by exploiting the divided opposition.

“Taken into the context of the dynamic of politics, Mrs. Arroyo is going to survive till 2010,” he asserted.

Tuazon also said given the “fragmented political opposition,” her “anointed one” could also win the presidential elections in 2010.

He, though, averred that the next President could even be worse than Mrs. Arroyo, even as he warned that if the country continues to adhere to the present system of “elite politics,” elections would be nothing but an exercise in futility because those who have the power and wield influence will always win in polls.

Ateneo De Manila University Prof. Benito Lim, also one of the panelists in the forum, made a similar assessment, saying unless the opposition and the masses find a better way to change the administration, Mrs. Arroyo will remain in power.

“Her survival comes from the study of the techniques of the opposition,” Lim told participants to the forum attended by students, representatives from non-government organizations and some foreign embassy officials.

He said Mrs. Arroyo has studied the political system and “privatized” the Philippine National Police and the Armed Forces of the Philippines to ensure her political endurance.

He added she has also filled her government with loyal appointees who could shield her from accountability in the controversies involving her administration and family beyond her term.

CenPeg’s vice chairman and UP professor of Politics and International Relations Temario Rivera also painted a grim picture of a “fragmented legal opposition.”

“The legal opposition remains fragmented with possibly three to four blocs emerging,” Rivera said, referring to the deposed President Joseph Estrada bloc, Senate President Manny Villar Jr. and the National Party bloc, Sen. Manuel “Mar Roxas and the Liberal Party bloc and the Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco-Nationalist People’s Coalition bloc that includes Senators Loren Legarda, Francis “Chiz” Escudero and Panfilo “Ping” Lacson.

“In an electoral contest, the opposition will face tremendous difficulties given their fragmentation, lack of financial and organizational resources and the procedural infirmities of the electoral process,” Rivera said, even as he noted that while the unpopularity of Mrs. Arroyo could be an asset, that unpopularity would be difficult to translate as a positive factor for the opposition at the local level.

When asked about the State of the Nation Address (Sona), Tuazon said it would be significant “if someone listens.”

“It would be a challenge to her speech writer...How will she be packaged?” he said.

He said Mrs. Arroyo is trying to get some significant things done before the Sona, including sealing a final deal in her government’s peace negotiations with the Muslim separatist group Moro Islamic Liberation Front to have some talking points in her speech, which, he averred “will likely fade away into the psyche of the populace after 24 hours.”