Wrong timing, wrong endorser, wrong party

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Rudy Romero

01/22/2010

When I wrote a column last year about the presidential prospects of then Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Jr., a member of the secretary’s public relations staff took issue with me about the views I expressed in the column. He quickly simmered down when I told him that Gilberto “Bert” Teodoro Sr. was a close friend of my family — indeed he was one of my father’s poker cronies — and that the things I said in the column were written more in sorrow than in anything else.

The view that I expressed was that Gibo Teodoro could not win this year’s presidential election. Practically everything was wrong for Gibo, I said. Wrong timing, wrong endorser, wrong political party.

Gibo’s being a presidential candidate this year was such a pity, I said, because Bert Teodoro’s son is a good man. Well-brought-up, bright, an excellent academic record, good-looking, personable and sensible. He could have waited for another time and another set of circumstances. He didn’t have to run in this year’s race.

But the die is cast and there he is in the hustings as the standard-bearer of the Lakas-Kampi party. And he has been endorsed by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, with whom, he has said, he doesn’t have to break.

Again I say, what a pity. A good man with nowhere to go. All Gibo’s talent, all his efforts, all his time and treasure, will go down the drain.

The timing is all wrong. For one thing, he is running as the standard-bearer of a party whose titular leader continues to becloud the political environment by sending out signals indicating that she doesn’t want to go. Then there is the sympathy-for-Cory factor. Former President Aquino’s death last August unleashed all the pent-up negative sentiments of the people against the woman Gibo is seeking to succeed. The pro-Aquino feeling gave rise to Senator Noynoy’s unexpected candidacy. Then there is the threat of a billionaire real estate developer’s buying his way, tarnished name and all, to Malacañang. And, last but certainly not least, there is the spectacle of a Joseph Estrada demonstrating, with energy provincial sortie he makes, that the masa — the millions of Filipinos belonging to the D and E income classes — are still his very own constituency.

Under normal circumstances Gibo Teodoro would be able to hold his own against these political forces. But the circumstances under which he is running are certainly not normal.

The former Secretary of National Defense is going into battle with the endorsement of arguably the most despised Malacañang occupant in the post-war era. In effect, he will be jousting with Joseph Estrada, Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar with the kiss of death planted on his cheek. Gibo Teodoro says that he sees no cause to break with Gloria Arroyo, but if he wants to be a serious contender, he will sooner or later have to start distancing himself from Arroyo. I think it will have to be sooner.

The third thing that is wrong with Gibo Teodoro’s presidential run is the party he is running under. On paper Lakas-Kampi is one party, but, as anyone familiar with provincial politics will attest, the on-the-ground story is different. In too many places Lakas-Kampi is a two-parties affair. It is bad enough that Gibo Teodoro is having to contend with a number of weighty opponents; he has, in addition, to contend with a party that is united in name but not in fact.

Going back to the issue of wrong timing, another factor working against his candidacy this year is that Gibo Teodoro is still not very well known to his countrymen. His nearly two-year stint as Secretary of National Defense was not enough to make himself known to Filipinos who do not live in places close to military facilities. By contrast, Erap, Manny Villar and Cory Aquino’s son are familiar names in most households in this country. The Lakas-Kampi leadership believes that, by virtue of his having been a Cabinet member for nearly two years, Gibo Teodoro is sufficiently well known around the country. They are wrong. He is not well known, and the campaign period is woefully short.

The Bert Teodoro I knew — one of the most honest public officials this country has ever seen — was a very level-headed and practical man. One wonders whether he would have agreed to Gibo’s going for the presidency in 2010. I am inclined to think that, with all the attendant wrongnesses, Bert would have told his son to wait for 2016.

(My e-mail address is rudy_v_romero@yahoo.com)

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