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Practical politics 101

EDITORIAL

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10/31/2009

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Unless practical politics has undergone a drastic change, Nacionalista Party standard bearer Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar will be tapping Sen. Loren Legarda of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) as his running mate for the 2010 presidential polls.

But this decision to tap Loren won’t come to fruition if she and her party decide to team up with administration standard bearer, outgoing Defense chief Gilbert Teodoro.

In that scenario, Villar may have no other option but to tap Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero as his running mate. Of course Villar, if both reject the NP offer, can always get someone else, but if that individual does not have the same stature in politics as Escudero and Legarda, Villar’s candidacy may suffer, on account of public perception that nobody big wants to team up with him.

There are major political considerations for Villar to choose Legarda over Escudero, the first being that with Legarda as his running mate, he increases the chances of getting an informal alliance with the NPC, which also increases the NP chances of coming up with more senatorial and local candidates on his side.

There is hardly any doubt that NPC is an established and tried political party, having acquitted itself in many electoral battles, albeit on the local and grassroots level, since 1992. A politician seeking higher office certainly can’t merely scoff at the relative strength of the NPC.

Legarda also needs to be carried by a presidential bet, which the NPC lacks at this time, owing to the bolting of its only standard bearer, Escudero. While she may go it alone but be supported by the NPC, that would still be a steep climb to victory for her. Besides, if she junks Villar and he gets Escudero, that would translate to having one more strong rival for her, in the vice presidential race.

Of course Legarda can always be adopted by the administration party as a “guest” Lakas candidate, but having already stated that she would stay with the opposition, this may cut down her options to the bone. Even as she can always claim that she will be with the opposition and a “guest” bet of the administration, she can’t campaign on her own, and be out of the administration campaign. But it does appear that she has had a change of political heart, as she was quoted as saying that she could run with Teodoro, because all she wants is peace.

Still, there are those in the Arroyo administration and even in the opposition, who believe that the 2010 race won’t be about administration or opposition, as the dividing line has been blurred, and that Gloria Arroyo is not running for the presidency in 2010. If Legarda buys that, then she can opt to become Teodoro’s running mate.

After all, it didn’t quite hurt her electoral chances in 2004 when, as a Lakas member, she wasn’t picked as the ruling party’s VP bet and she did bolt that party to join the opposition, ending up as the vice presidential bet of then opposition standard bearer Fernando Poe Jr.

If she does join up with Teodoro and the administration camp, that would now leave Villar no option but to try and get Escudero as his running mate.

The thing that would disturb the NP camp is the fact that Escudero’s supporters, who are mainly the youth, will hardly be captured by Villar, if the youth groups insist on their rejection of traditional politics and an embrace of idealistic politics. But for Escudero, if he runs with Villar, he could still project for himself an image of a politician with “idealism” and “independence” from traditional politics and perhaps still retain the youth’s support, although this would hardly be of political help to Villar, as a presidential candidate. A team must always perform as a team.

As for taking the presidential road independently, Escudero just won’t stand a chance without any party and organization logistics.

Chances are high, however, that Escudero will opt out of the race, whether as a presidential or vice presidential race, and perhaps wait it out in the Senate until 2016 comes around, that is, if there are no changes in the Charter. If there are, such as a shift to the parliamentary system, he can kiss his higher ambitions goodbye, because parliamentary politics is all about party politics.

The idealism of the youth is always good, but idealism must always be tempered with political reality. Changes don’t come overnight and practical politics always wins out in the end.