As surveys go, the latest special two-day Social Weather Stations survey showing Sen. Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino not just topping the presidential contenders, but also getting landslide 50 percent of the vote, may prove to be as meaningless as the SWS’ top picks surveys, where respondents can name three of their choices.
The latest survey is even more difficult to read right, owing to the absence of important data covering the survey.
For propaganda purposes of the Makati businessmen and the Liberal Party, however, such a survey serves their purpose of creating an early "bandwagon" effect for their candidate, Aquino.
Still it is perplexing why a business group would commission a survey of 1,200 respondents, which is the usual base used in nationwide surveys, would be utilized only for the National Capital Region, Pangasinan, Regions lll and 1V-A only. Sure, it is supposed to be the vote-rich areas, but such is still not reflective of the national choices, since Visayas and Mindanao and many other regions have not been included. And the survey was also conducted at a time when the media focus was on the Liberal Party bets, as well as the Cory Aquino death aftermath.
But what is clearly lacking, by way of data released, is the demographic picture, such as the way the ABC, D and E electorate voted; was the percentage of D class bigger than the E class, for instance, when it is clear that there are more of the E class than the D class; how the distribution of the respondents went, by way of numbers in the two regions, Pangasinan and the NCR; how much in percentage went to the urban voters, as compared to the provincial voters, and just which areas did the SWS field surveyors focus on?
Such specific data are important for one to read the surveys intelligently, although news-wise, all that matters to media the moment the survey findings are released, is to simply banner who topped the survey and who fell behind.
Yet in analyzing data, one has to be informed on, at the very least, the distribution of survey respondents, for one to know whether the surveys are much too skewed, to favor the private client.
For one, just how many respondents, from 1,200 were calculated for the NCR (usually 300 respondents in a national survey) and how many in Pangasinan, Regions lll and lV-A, and which areas were respondents surveyed, even if respondents were randomly picked?
Also, it would be good to know just how many field workers were involved in the survey-taking, especially as it is virtually a day’s survey. One field worker in a region, for certain, cannot be expected to reach 300 randomly picked respondents in just two days, or more specifically, 24 hours, on a 12 hour day. Besides, not everyone a field worker chances upon says yes to being asked too many survey questions. A 1,200 respondent survey, collated, cross-checked and analyzed can hardly be done in less than a week’s time and well do research firms know it.
Then too, when private groups commission their surveys, they can come up with their own questions, state which areas the survey should cover, and many other preferences besides.
For example, it is the private group’s choice to include or exclude certain names on the list for the commissioned survey. Thus, in an area which is claimed to be a Cojuangco-Aquino enclave, the vote naturally went to Noynoy Aquino, since Gilbert Teodoro, also a Cojuangco, was not even in the Tarlac picture.
Still, there are surveys and surveys, even if it is granted that such early surveys are mere snapshots of the electorate’s choice at that specific time the survey was conducted.
But if the LP and the businessmen think that such an incomplete survey would get other serious presidential contenders to withdraw, which appears to have been the intent, that would be a colossal mistake on their part.
