Goodbye to all that

EDITORIAL

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04/14/2009

Charter change (Cha-cha) moves in the House of Representatives will have to go through the process.

But that is hardly of any importance. What is important to the nation comes when plenary voting is effected and in this, Gloria Arroyo and her allies in Congress will fail to get the votes needed from the congressmen to usher in an approval of the Constituent Assembly (Con-ass).

If, after all the noise generated from the House for the Cha-cha move, the resolution for a Con-ass remains inadequate, what more is bound to happen during plenary voting, when the signatory is required to be physically present to cast his vote for or against the Con-ass?

By July this year, Gloria is slated to deliver her last State of the Nation Address (Sona). It would be stupid of her to come up with a Sona outlining again her “vision” for the country and the nation when that “vision” will be immaterial and irrelevant as far as her regime goes, owing to the fact that she has effectively less than a year to finish up whatever projects or stimulus she will be bruiting about, especially since all her “visions” enumerated in the past Sonas hardly ever came to fruition.

By November this year, or even earlier, all eyes will be focused on elections and the presidential candidates who will have declared their candidacies, owing to the early filing of the certificates of candidacy, as the Commission on Elections insists. And when that happens, Gloria will officially assume lameduck status. Nothing that she says, or does by way of projects and more “visions,” will have any impact on the nation.

While she is expected to campaign for her presidential anointed, she would also be realizing that political realignments are expected to occur. Even if her Lakas-Kampi parties get together and endorse a united administration presidential bet, a lot of these party mates will be supporting whichever candidate is the most popular among the voters and it is a given that the candidate anointed by Gloria and her Lakas-Kampi will suffer rejection from the voters, mainly because of that presidential candidate’s identification with her and her administration political parties.

So Cha-cha is not expected to fly — not if the required number is met. But say the House railroads Cha-cha and with money flowing, it gets the numbers needed. What is likely to happen? This goes to the high court for a decision on whether a single chamber can affect the Cha-cha through the Con-ass route.

Supposing, just supposing, the Supreme Court declares the House Con-ass unconstitutional. What happens then to the congressmen who voted for the Con-ass resolution knowing that they may just lose their elective seats because of their having voted for the Con-ass?

They are not unaware that there is massive opposition to Cha-cha at this time by the majority of Filipinos, among whom are their constituents.

Most vulnerable in this scenario would be the Metro Manila and nearby cities and provinces congressmen running for reelection, as it is in the metropolitan areas where opposition to Cha-cha is much too evident. Are they willing to take that risk?

Others in their areas where they continue to hold sway may take the risk, but in the main, it becomes too big an elective gamble for these congressmen to make.

Yet one other scenario is that of Gloria, having been unsuccessful in staying longer in Malacañang through the Cha-cha, will impose emergency rule, or a Palace coup. But as she herself always says, the world will not tolerate another Edsa, or a coup d’ etat.

But never mind what the world says. What matters is what the Filipinos say. It is after all, their country at stake.

As things stand today, there is already massive opposition to Cha-cha, and the reason for this is that the people want elections to end Gloria’s reign through constitutional means.

What then makes Gloria and her military generals think that emergency rule will fly with the Filipinos whose main reason for opposing Cha-cha today is the conviction that it is through this mode that she can continue to stay in power and position?

It’s a risk they have to take. But so did Marcos take that risk and where did it get him in the end?

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