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EDITORIAL

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05/13/2008

The problem of the Arroyo administration is that it has a very, very shallow pool of probable presidential candidates, mainly because, like former President Fidel Ramos before her, the focus of the so-called leadership issue has been solely centered on Gloria Arroyo, with its long-running propaganda that there is no alternative to Gloria.

Thus, not even her hand-picked vice president, Noli de Castro, was, following Malacañang propaganda, deemed by the Arroyo administration, an acceptable alternative to Gloria.

The problem of the political opposition, on the other hand, is that it has a very deep pool of probable presidential candidates, making it more difficult for the opposition to unite behind a single candidate, which will translate to perhaps one administration presidential bet, as against say four to five opposition candidates. This in turn makes it easier for poll fraud to occur, apart from the nation ending up with a minority president who may not be able to unite the nation behind his government.

Still, the problem of a lack of a strong Gloria Arroyo presidential bet is a lot larger compared to the opposition problem, in that a strong presidential candidate from the opposition can emerge, despite four or five opposition bets throwing their hats into the presidential ring.

As things stand among the political parties allied with Gloria, such as Lakas and Kampi, there is, as of now, no strong bet emerging from within the party leaders.

Noli de Castro is seen as running for the top post in 2004, but he also passes himself off as an independent, and is not aligned with either the Lakas or Kampi. This claim is being made despite the fact that he ran under Gloria’s KBP administration team in 2004 as her VP.

He can, of course be adopted by the administration as its 2010 presidential candidate and there is a precedent.

In 1998, Gloria, who had established her newly formed party, Kampi, meant as her presidential vehicle, opted out of the presidential race and ran for the vice presidency under the Lakas party and won.

No doubt, De Castro, even as he has no political party to speak of, believes that, as he is the only administration-identified bet making a strong showing in the surveys, he has the best chance to become Gloria’s anointed and as such, De Castro will not only be handed the Lakas and Kampi parties behind his candidacy, but also become the beneficiary of campaign largess from Gloria, plus plus, in exchange of course for protection for Gloria, along with her current aides being retained in the Cabinet because, as the argument will go, Noli has absolutely no experience in running government.

And whether De Castro admits it, he can’t run as an independent presidential candidate and will have to rely on Gloria and her Lakas and Kampi to be his vehicle to the presidency. But this move will definitely establish himself as the Gloria administration presidential candidate, which may, in the end, harm his candidacy, being identified with Gloria.

Besides, there is that probability that former President Joseph Estrada may make good his word that if the opposition bets do not unite behind one single candidate, he would be forced to run.

Of course there are risks for the opposition leader if he chooses to run for the same position. There is no doubt that Gloria and her allies, through some front, will question the qualification of Estrada to run for the same post, citing the constitutional proviso of no reelection ( which can, however, be challenged by Estrada) first, in the Commission on Elections, and if Estrada is disqualified by the Comelec, then there is the Supreme Court, both agencies which are seen as being controlled by Gloria.

Still, neither the Comelec nor the SC can, with speed, disqualify Estrada, as the political season will by that time, be heating up, and any speed at which these agencies will decide on the issue will be seen as a highly partisan decision, favoring again Gloria and her administration. This could end up in big political trouble for the entire system.

But there is also the fact that by this campaign time, Gloria, being disqualified from running for the same position, will already have become a political lameduck, if not a dead duck and realistically, her influence and control over these two government institutions will have waned, as even these two agencies, perceived to do her bidding, have to contend with the fact that there will no longer be a president named Arroyo in Malacañang.

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